What the Google-Oracle court fight is revealing
Corporate trials can be exciting for reporters and the public, a bonanza for lawyers and a potential headache for executives.
For financial analysts, they can be good sources of datapoints that they wouldn?t typically get from earnings calls or regulatory filings.
Legal showdowns featuring Oracle Corp. /quotes/zigman/76584 /quotes/nls/orcl ORCL , in particular, have typically been good venues to harvest important business and financial information.
The 2004 trial over Oracle?s bid to takeover PeopleSoft, for instance, revealed that Microsoft Corp.? /quotes/zigman/20493 /quotes/nls/msft MSFT at one point discussed a possible merger with SAP. It also unveiled a portrait of business software market as a fiercely competitive arena. An Oracle exec?s email disclosed during the trial read: ?PeopleSoft is the enemy. Bury them. ? Now let me get back to my red-meat breakfast.? And how would we know that Oracle once had a program code-named ?Kill SAP? if not for the trial?
Analysts are now also finding good nuggets of information from the ongoing battle in a San Francisco federal courtroom between Oracle and Google Inc. /quotes/zigman/93888 /quotes/nls/goog GOOG .
While the Internet powerhouse is facing tough questions over what Oracle claims are its improper use of the software giant?s Java platform, the trial in a federal court room is giving analysts valuable insights into Google?s game plan ? and how that plan has been working out for the tech giant.
Macquarie analyst Ben Schachter cited slides from a 2010 internal Google presentation which he said ?offer investors (and others, including competitors) an unprecedented look into the how Google viewed Android?s evolution and its potential.?
?There are MANY interesting data points and strategic views (which we go through in detail below), however, we do caution that this is a snapshot in time and given the speed with which the mobile market has evolved, we have to be careful not to extrapolate too much of this into the current landscape,? he wrote.
Still, he noted, that based on the slides, the install base of smartphones based on Google?s Android operating system have doubled vs. the company?s 2010 expectations. On the other hand, ?Android tablets have been less successful than originally anticipated.?
?In 2010, Android devices had 2.65 searches completed per day and Google estimated $9.83 in annual Android ad revenue per device,? he added. Google also ?expected tablets to monetize ads about 285% more than phones.?
Baird analyst Colin Sebastian also wrote that court documents show that Google was ?exceeding its own expectations where it counts.?
Sebastian also was particularly upbeat about what the court documents said about Android, which is Google?s main weapon in the rapidly growing smart phone and tablet market.
?Android still provides enormous opportunities for Google,? he wrote. ?Despite ongoing concerns over Google?s monetization of Android, the documents indicate that Android?s growth is significantly outperforming internal expectations and is still in a very early growth stage.?
- Benjamin Pimentel
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